The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), in collaboration with project partners, recently hosted a groundbreaking scientific briefing to discuss the potential impacts of the approaching El Niño phenomenon. The event, held on June 19th at the University of Pretoria, brought together climate experts, government representatives, and members of the business community. The objective was to enhance awareness of the global weather patterns associated with El Niño and La Niña events, particularly in light of the strong El Niño currently developing in the Pacific Ocean region.
With a mix of in-person and online attendance, approximately 300 participants engaged in active discussions on past, present, and future El Niño events, and the potential consequences for the economy, health, and livelihoods. El Niño and La Niña are alternating phases of ocean-atmosphere conditions known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), characterized by deviations from the long-term average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. These phases influence atmospheric circulation patterns worldwide, thus impacting seasonal weather across the globe.
Dr. Neville Sweijd, a senior researcher at the CSIR and Director of the ACCESS Programme, facilitated the summit discussions alongside Professor Willem Landman from the University of Pretoria, Drs. Johan Malherbe and Mokhele Moeletsi from the Agricultural Research Council, Christien Engelbrecht and Katlego Ncongwane from the South African Weather Service, Peter Johnston from the University of Cape Town, and Dechlan Pillay from the National Disaster Management Centre. These experts presented data highlighting the relationship between El Niño and extreme weather events in South Africa, emphasizing the development of a moderate-to-strong El Niño. Concerns were also raised regarding the steady rise in ocean temperatures, which have repeatedly broken records over the past decade. Notably, May and June of 2023 witnessed the highest sea surface temperatures ever recorded during these months, underscoring the alarming global climate trends.
The briefing program encompassed explanations of the scientific aspects surrounding ENSO phenomena, along with a historical overview of regional impacts on rainfall and temperature in southern Africa. A panel discussion focused on the highly impactful 2015/16 El Niño event and its repercussions on agriculture, human health, water supply, and disaster response. The current status of the El Niño event was addressed, aiming to demystify concepts such as “likelihood” and “heat waves.” The session triggered an engaging exchange of ideas. Additionally, strategies, response structures, and policies designed to address the potential impacts of El Niño later this year were shared. Extensive discussions revolved around planning and preemptive awareness of the expected weather patterns during the upcoming summer rainfall season in various parts of the country, including the Free State and northern regions of southern Africa.
It was emphasized that El Niño events and their effects on southern Africa vary, making forecasting challenging at this time scale of months. Previous instances have shown that even weak ENSO events can have severe impacts, while strong events may have marginal effects. Nevertheless, the attending team of experts expressed concerns that this year’s El Niño could result in a significantly hotter and drier summer. Professor Landman, a seasoned climate prediction expert, stated, “We can predict the impacts of La Niña with more confidence than those of El Niño.” The emphasis of the event was on fostering awareness, without inducing alarm, and understanding the stakeholders’ needs in terms of climate information. Valuable knowledge and insights were shared regarding the potential ways in which El Niño could influence lives and livelihoods.
The next gathering of climate experts is scheduled for September when additional information on this year’s El Niño event and climate trends in the region will be available as the spring season approaches.
