Alex Rose-Innes
The latest research from the University of Oxford predicts that total electricity generation across the African continent would double within the next decade, (to 2030), with fossil fuels expected to continue to dominate the energy mix, increasing the risk to global climate.
The study, published in Nature Energy, used a machine-learning technique to analyse the pipeline of over 2,500 currently planned power plants on the continent and addressed the chances of it being successfully commissioned. It showed that the share of non-hydro renewables in African electricity generation was likely to remain below 10% in 2030, but this varied by region.
“There is a prominent narrative in the energy planning community that the continent will be able to take advantage of its vast renewable energy resources and rapidly decreasing clean technology prices to leapfrog to renewables by 2030, but our analysis shows that overall it is not currently positioned to do so,” the published study stated.
The study highlighted the fact that Africa’s electricity demand was set to increase significantly as the continent strove to industrialise and improve the wellbeing of its people, offers an opportunity to power this economic development through renewables.
Galina Alova, study lead author and researcher at the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, predicted that within another decade, fossil fuels would account for two-thirds of all generated electricity across the continent. It is expected that an additional 18% of energy generation is expected to be from hydro-energy projects, but would have its own problems such as being vulnerable to the increasing number of droughts on the continent, caused by climate change.
The research also highlighted regional differences in the pace of the transition to renewables, with Southern Africa leading the way. South Africa alone is forecast to add almost 40% of Africa’s total predicted new solar capacity by 2030.
According to Calle Schlettwein, Namibian Environmental Minister, the country was committed to generate 70% of its electricity needs from renewable sources. This would, according to him, include all major alternative sources such as hydropower and wind and solar generation by 2030, as specified in the National Energy Policy and in the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Climate Change Accord. Schlettwein said Namibia welcomed this study and believed that it would support the refinement of strategies for increasing generation capacity from renewable sources in Africa. He believed that it could lead to successful and more effective public and private sector investments in the renewable energy sector.
The Oxford study identified ways in which planned renewable energy projects could be designed to improve their success chances such as smaller sizes adapted to fit ownership structure and availability of development finance
The study further suggested that a decisive move towards renewable energy in Africa would require a significant shock to the current system. This included large-scale cancellation of fossil fuel plants still being planned.
“The development community and African decision makers need to act quickly if the continent wants to avoid being locked into a carbon-intense energy future,” said Philipp Trotter, study author and researcher at the Smith School at Oxford University. He said that immediate re-directions of development finance from fossil fuels to renewables were an important lever to increase experience with solar and wind energy projects across the continent in the short term, creating critical learning curve effects which would have positive future impacts.
