The South African Weather Services (SAWS) has issued an alert to farmers to brace themselves for another wet season which raises fears of potential crop damage. This is the third year in a row of above-average summer rainfalls, also known as La Niña, which leads to excessive flooding, waterlogged lands and extensive crop damage.
Independent meteorologist, Johan van den Berg, echoed SAWS forecast, saying most regions of South Africa can expect above average rainfall between November this year into January 2023. He said many dams across some parts of the country are still full to capacity following massive rainfalls last year and he warned that more rainfalls could lead to possible flooding.
Widespread waterlogging
Last month Greening Afrika carried a report by Senwes, a South African leading agri-business, which also indicated that a number of modelling platforms picked up a strong signal of La Niña for 2022. Senwes also noted that these consecutive high-rainfall summer seasons led to widespread water logging in several parts of the country. Grain SA’s Willem Groothof said that farmers in North West and the Free State, which are the main maize producers, were particularly hit hard by floods.
Historically, South Africa previously experienced three consecutive La Niña seasons between 1973 and 1975, and again between 1998 and 2001. However, further projections indicate the La Niña episode would start to dwindle by February 2023 and this will see diminished rainfall during the next autumn season compared with the rainfall experienced this year.
Informed decisions
Christo van der Rheede, executive director of Agri SA, welcomed the forecast and encouraged farmers to analyse the information carefully and use it to their advantage. “We need to remember that climate forecasts remain just that – a forecast. [But] it’s a good indication and farmers need to use this as a basis when planning for the coming season. See the good rainfall as an opportunity to plant [crops],” said van der Rheede. He said last year they received a number of negative reports which predicted poor harvest due to above-average rainfalls.
Despite these, he said, farmers were able to harvest 15 million tons of maize contrary to ‘doomsday speculators’. “Our farmers have the necessary knowledge. They should use that and make informed decisions,” said van der Rheede, adding in the event of catastrophe, farmers should remember that Agri SA’s National Disaster Management Centre is available to lend a hand. He said in the past they have assisted farmers during drought, in the event of fire and locust damage.
Traditional harvesting method
Farmers who were affected by the La Niña-related high rainfalls early this year were forced to resort to the traditional manual labour of harvesting each cob of maize by hand. Farmers say the unusually higher rainfalls this year flooded their fields making it difficult for them to use combined harvesters. Although this provided the much needed employment for seasonal labourers, it also proved costly as this was not budgeted for. However, it is not clear if the La Niña forecast would include the Eastern Cape Province which is currently experiencing one of the prolonged and devastating droughts. Economists and agricultural experts say the high summer rainfalls as well as long dry seasons should be seen as clear signs of the climate change. They advised farmers, particularly in rain scarce regions, to explore the latest smart technologies that would enable them to scientifically plan and mitigate the negative impact of climate change.
