At the United Nation’s (UN) climate change conference COP29, taking place in Azerbaijan, a key talking point will be countries’ progress in keeping the world at a 1.5°C temperature increase.
Mail & Guardian raised this issue in a recent article, based on a letter sent out by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) COP 28 presidency, the Azerbaijani COP 29 presidency and the Brazilian COP 30 presidency, ambitions to keep the world at this level will be one of the event’s crucial discussions.
According to the Paris Agreement, a legal document about keeping global climate change under 2°C, countries are called on to lower carbon emissions by forming nationally determined contributions (NDC’s). These are commitments from countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as part of mitigating climate change. These commitments are set to be renewed next year as part of the agreement as COP29 would concentrate on promoting discussions regarding which countries still need to achieve global goals of reducing climate change. This will include how these defaulting countries can be supported, existing barriers and how implementing these NDC’s can be achieved.
Climate Analytics, a global climate science and policy institute, has created a tool where countries find themselves with regards to their NDC’s ahead of the crucial COP29 this year and COP30 next year in Brazil. The tool applies data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as scientific evidence to suggest how countries levels of development can align with their decarbonisation efforts as per the Paris Agreement.
The South African Climate Change Progress Scenario
The tool shows SA will not reach its climate goals. To reach the goal of 1.5°C, emissions will need to decrease quicker and for that to happen, coal must be phased out by 2030 to 2035. However, coal is responsible for most of SA’s power supply (85%) and that needs to drop significantly if 1.5°C is to be reached.
Despite this clarion call, SA’s Integrated Resources Plan (IRP), the country’s energy blueprint, highlights the need to extend the life of coal. This is not in line with the country’s NDC ambitions as coal-fired power stations contribute significantly to the emissions. Coal is still featured in the plan as critical to stabilising the country’s power supply.
The IRP Horizon One calls for delaying decommissioning coal stations, one of the reasons why the country will battle to reach its climate goals. While it does not call for new coal-fired stations, delaying decommissioning will undoubtedly not see SA in a favourable light at the talks.
